Analysis of steel price trend in December

Steel prices continued to rise in November. On the one hand, it is boosted by the macro level. After the election of the United States, the risk of external uncertainty has been reduced, and the rise of global capital market has driven the domestic market to strengthen. At the same time, the domestic economy has recovered steadily, and the macro data is getting better and the expectation is stronger. In addition, the signing of RCEP marks the birth of the world's largest free trade zone, reducing tariffs and trade barriers, which is conducive to the direct and indirect export of steel. On the other hand, infrastructure investment has been accelerated, and the demand for real estate in the rush period before winter is accelerated. Steel continued to de stock, boosting steel prices rose sharply in November.

However, for the next December, the macro trend for the better has not changed, but we need to pay attention to the challenges brought by epidemic prevention and control. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is a pressure of weakening demand. With the deepening of winter, the space for the recovery of infrastructure investment is limited, and the progress of real estate construction will be affected. The peak demand has passed and there is a risk of falling back. However, the impact of environmental protection production restriction on steel production this year is limited. Driven by profits, there is even a small increase in December. In addition, due to tight funds at the end of the year, the pressure to withdraw funds will increase and the willingness to purchase will decline. However, given that the raw material end is relatively strong and there is still support, there is no risk of a sharp drop in December.