The hull steel spot market is expected to continue to fall next week

The supply and demand in China's spot steel market have both increased, and the overall hull steel etc. inventory in China has seen an inflection point this week, and the inventory has begun to drop. From the perspective of market transactions, it is currently in the peak season, but the market transaction data has not exceeded expectations.

The hull steel etc. plate inventory structure is obviously different. The direct delivery terminals of steel mills have been put in place around the year, and the demand for replenishment in the real peak season may have been very limited. Taking into account the current market prices, steel mills are profitable and may continue to maintain high output. The biggest uncertainty in the market may come from foreign steel and bulk markets. At present, the Chinese market generally believes that there is still room for growth in global bulk commodities. Considering that the economic recovery and quantitative easing policies have not yet been fully reflected in the real economy, it is believed that the time node has not yet arrived.

However, we believe that the peak of Chinese commodity exports since the epidemic may have passed, and the surge in China's hull steel etc. steel products driven by foreign economic repair demand since October last year may not repeat itself, and it needs to be treated with caution. It is expected that the Chinese hull steel spot market will continue to fall next week.

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